Australia or Bust

If you take a walk through your average CBD souvenir store, you would be hard pressed to find many items that are locally made. The typical tourist is buying a symbol of Australia hand crafted in China. Despite this oddity, the tourism industry is an economic force to be reckoned with. In Queensland alone, tourism has equated to approximately $8.1billion (year leading to Mar 08) according to Tourism Queensland. TQ’s figures also show that around 103, 500 Queenslanders are employed in the tourism sector (5.6% of employment in QLD). Why does any of this matter? At this time Tourism Research Australia is forecasting a prolonged industry slump due to a high Australian dollar (which has recently had a minor drop), global economic slowdown and oil prices. This along with a heavily publicised decline in the key inbound tourism markets of Japan, United States and Britain, makes one wonder where the Australian tourism industry will turn for future stability and growth. Some tour organisers are dismissing the current and forecasted continuous drop in Japanese visitors, and the majority of industry bodies are looking to one country for growth in the coming years –China. Is China the saviour of the industry? And if so what impact will they have on Australia?

One representative  of the World Tourism and Travel Commission believes that not only will we see a drastic increase in the number of Chinese visitors coming to our shores, but there will be some unique effects on associated industries and culture. WTTC representative and policy advisor Nancy Cockerell says “One of the main reasons for optimism is that China [like Asia generally, with the exception of Japan] has a much younger population than Australia’s traditional source markets of Europe and North America and therefore holds greater promise of a continued supply of international travellers.”

When asked what would be the broader flow on effects of such a prolonged influx Ms Cockerell went on to suggest that this increase would increase employment in the industry and lead to such things as a greater number of younger Australians learning Mandarin in order to take part in the tourism sector and associated industries, and also a growth in the number Asian/Chinese restaurants across the nation – as of this year according to the Restaurant and Catering Association, 14.5% of all restaurants/catering services in Australia already cater to Chinese cuisine.

“Two-way trade in 2006-7 exceeded $54 billion, with average annual growth of 25 per cent over the last five years. People-to-people links are also growing strongly, particularly in education and tourism. “ says MP Smith. Which only strengthens the likelihood of Ms Cockerell’s predictions. To add to this, financial analyst Joseph Cole has said “Clearly, more demand equals more opportunities in this sector. Everything else equal, more tourists [from whatever country] result in more employment and development in the tourism industries.”

Tourism Queensland claims that “Tourism has enormous potential to diversify our economy and generate more jobs for Queenslanders. As our second largest export earner, it is already the lifeblood of many Queensland communities.” Nationally, according to the Tourism Forecasting Committee the hope is that this one industry will amount to $107 billion by 2017. This hope stems from the TRA’s expectations that the influx of Chinese tourists to Australia will grow by 27.1% in the next 9 years compared to a 3.6% decline in the Japanese, who have been our key Asian inbound tourist market for years. The reason for such a high estimation from the TRA and such faith from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is due to the expected rate of 8.8 – 10% GDP growth for China between now and 2011.

The WTTC and the Nielson Company state that the most likely segments of the Chinese population coming to Australia shall be the youth market previously mentioned, the rising middle classes in China – also urban residents, but on less than half the salaries of urban affluents and usually younger (average age mid-30s) – are also key targets since they are growing extremely fast in size, are increasingly educated, and have probably learned English.  They are also more confident about travelling independently in foreign countries, including travelling on local transport, are eager to have contact with local people, learn about foreign cultures, and have a “memorable” holiday experience.

Conversely, TRA confirms claims being made by leading Chinese news outlet China Daily that China has as much capacity to take tourists away from our shores as they do to send them here. China’s tourism industry is gearing for a massive international influx post-Olympics; and as they strengthen economic ties with countries in the region other than Australia, this claim seems more and more plausible.

Pan Wen, in charge of Chinese tourism research of the Nielson Company, said the World Tourism organization predicted that China would become the largest tourist attraction in the world with 137 million foreign tourists every year. “This figure would be realized earlier with the aid of the Beijing Olympics,” Pan said.

Australia’s overall relationship with China is being bolstered by continuing negotiations over a Free Trade Agreement. According to DFAT the FTA is yet to be finalised. The most recent round of negotiations was held in Beijing in June. In this latest round, there has been an agreement on easing entry for Chinese students hoping to study and travel in Australia.

Though in terms of our own young academics, student and youth oriented travel service, STA Travel says that more Australians want the beaches of Thailand over those of the Gold or Sunshine coasts. Australian Education International (AEI) shows that, in 2006, Chinese accounted for 22% of all foreign students on student visas in Australia.  And this does not take account of those staying less than three months and taking shorter courses.

The Japanese are reluctant, and the Chinese are eager. While not everyone in the tourism sector agrees on the future of the industry, enough of a majority have set down a unified path. The Chinese will soon be our greatest competitor for tourism in our region, although being our biggest inbound tourism market. All in all this means that, ironically, the biggest market for purchasing our Chinese made Australian souvenirs will be the Chinese themselves.

One Year on

The GFC has hit hard, and the Australian economy has become the light in the darkening world of international economics. Unfortunately two things have happened – economic powerhouse China has not escaped this financial crisis and relations between Australia and the People’s Republic has been strained by allegations of covert corporate activities in the key sector tying our two counties – mining.

Tourism Queensland has done its part to fight against economic doom and gloom with its ‘Greatest Job in the World’ stunt; whereas Tourism Australia has put the call out to any and all in the advertising industry to come up with the quintessential tagline for Australia – something to match New Zealand’s long standing  “100% Pure”. This could be construed as a cry for help after the failure of TA’s tie in with the cringe worthy Baz Lurham ocre epic ‘Australia’. Whether or not the tourism industry has played any part in the stability of the economy is uncertain, unless there are/were enough Australians willing to use their share of stimulus payouts to do some domestic travel.

The big question at the end of the day is, what the bloody hell is the selling point of Australia?

Lesson Learned

By Tim Trotman

It was said by George Orwell that ‘each generation imagines itself more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it’. Dr Gary MacLennan, 65, is facing an unexpected end to his 40 plus year teaching career due to his beliefs about the work of an academic of a new generation. “I lived to see the age of dumbing down,” says MacLennan.

After years of voicing his thoughts in public arenas – either as a political activist or as an academic – everything has become internalised. His plans to retire gracefully at a time of his choosing seem impossible now. A friend, who he describes as younger, healthier and stronger, has unexpectedly dropped dead in the middle of an afternoon walk. The latter has assured that his world has been shaken, and now he has both time and reason to contemplate what has come to pass in the last few months in the context of years of passion and devotion.

Today he sits quietly waiting for a coffee. His normally wily hair is now tamed; the regular scruffy button up shirt is hidden by a subdued knit sweater. For someone who has built a reputation based on bold statements, he’s noticeably short for words.

In April this year Dr MacLennan decided to take his words to people across Australia. A feature in the Australian and an interview on Triple J’s Hack program, acted as his public outlets for new found criticisms. These critical thoughts related to his disapproval and contempt toward the work of PhD student Michael Noonan.

The work which originally went by the title Laughing at the Disabled offended Dr MacLennan personally. The short series dealing with the exploits of two mentally handicapped young men struck the wrong chord with MacLennan who has a son who is handicapped.

A bureaucratic mess carried out until mid June when Dr MacLennan and colleague Dr John Hookham were suspended from the university without pay. They are unable to return to the campus until the end of year. Unfortunately to Gary, this may as well be forced retirement.

Former student of Gary and federal Labor candidate Graham Perrett has maintained a strong friendship with his former lecturer and has had much to say as Gary’s career reaches its end. “A shameful end to distinguished career,” says Mr Perrett when speaking of MacLennan’s situation. “Gary is a brilliant and passionate educator…he has a capacity to challenge accepted norms,” says Graham.

MacLennan’s experience has made him believe that safety, freedom and dignity for academics like him has been lost. Gary MacLennan has been an educator in Brisbane since emigrating from Ireland in 1975. In the 32 years since his arrival he has educated generations of students at Queensland University of Technology. While at QUT he has focused on the areas of English, media and culture, giving him opportunity to express his opinions to young minds on a regular basis.

“The worse your life is, the more powerful the dream is,” Gary has once said to his students. Gary has had a career that has spanned continents – from the United Kingdom to Nigeria to Australia – and has withstood the test of conservative adversaries – both politicians and employers – and now he has reason to follow the words he preaches. His desire to challenge what he defines as a thuggish conservative element has given him greater reason to fight on.

In his own mind they have started a war which has yet to be won. He has chosen not to give up until he is sure he can retire with his dignity in tact.